Before playing poker online I always try to get in at least a short session on the PS2. I've found that this gives me a fairly reliable idea of how my luck is running. Am I in for a good day where all the cards fall my way? Or is it "one of those days" where nothing will go right for me and I'm better off not risking real money?

My virtual bankroll is acting as a canary down the poker mine shaft. If it sings sweetly then I know all is well. If it chokes, falls over and dies then bad luck is in the air.

This should, of course, be nonsense. My luck on the PS2 and my luck on PKR are totally independent. Yet (without having done a rigourous statistical analysis) I'm convinced it works. Why?

Because hot and cold streaks are real.

However they're about a lot more than just the cards. Much as I might hate to admit it, my cold streaks are largely my own fault even though they look like luck.

Poker hands rarely come down 7-2 off suit or pocket aces, they're usually somewhere in between. Deciding how to play a hand is a mixture of conscious analysis and subconscious "instinct" developed over many hours of play. Most decisions we make during the game are marginal - if our poker instinct is off then a hot streak can become a cold one very quickly. Maybe other players have more self-awareness than me, but in my case I know my brain often interprets a run of bad decisions as a run of bad beats.

So my cold streaks are real and what seems to me to be a frozen deck is often a clue that I'm not on form. I've learned to listen to my poker canary and either continue playing on the PS2 until it starts "singing" or give poker a miss for the day.

Labels: general, poker

It's now two months since I started playing poker online for real money at PKR, so it's a good time to take a step back and see how things are going.

Initially I only played tournaments and sit 'n' gos. I've since expanded my play to ring games. I still prefer tourneys, it's just that I rarely have enough time to invest. There's no point starting a tournament hoping to get knocked out before your playing window closes! Initially my ring game play was awful and I'd usually lose my buy-in, but I've improved considerably.

The bottom line of course is my bankroll. How has this fared? Well it's currently about 10% higher than when I started. That's not enough for me to class as an ace but definitely better than a deuce! I'm pleasantly surprised that I've had two months of play for free, even a small profit is an unexpected bonus. And given that I'm still very much a newbie it makes me think there's hope for me yet.

So it's onwards and - hopefully - upwards.

Labels: general, poker

Am I the only one who suffers from "straight blindness"? I hate to think how often I've lost a big pot because I didn't even notice a possible straight developing. It's probably one of the worst leaks in my poker.

Hopefully it's not just me who has this problem. It would seem logical that straights are somehow more difficult to see than other hands. Pairs, trips etc are about matching values, flushes are about matching suits. Straights however involve sets of different numbers which may have different suits. It's a more complex pattern to match.

There's probably a project in there for some cognitive science student. As for me I'm going to try and consciously remember to stop and look for straights until the patterns are fully burned into my brain.

Labels: general, improving my game, poker

Since I openly admit my poker failures I think it's only fair that I'm allowed to brag about my occasional successes: Last night I entered an online tournament and from the field of 246 ended up in 3rd place! Yippee!

This being a money game, I won around 25 times by buy-in as a prize for 3rd place. Given the micro-stakes at which I play that doesn't come to much but that's not the point. To manage that result after only about two months of serious play makes me very happy.

Unfortunately it's probably still a little early to retire and write my memoirs.

Labels: general, poker